199
ACUS11 KWNS 181841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181841
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-182045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX...WESTERN LA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181841Z - 182045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
SHOULD OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WARM-SECTOR STORMS INTENSIFY AHEAD
OF A OUTFLOW-REINFORCED COLD FRONT. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S AS
FAR NORTHEAST AS THE GREATER HOUSTON METRO AREA, WARM-SECTOR SHOWERS
HAVE DEEPENED DOWNSTREAM WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TX. A 17Z SOUNDING FROM TEXAS A&M AT CLL WELL SAMPLED THE
PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW-REINFORCED COLD FRONT
THAT HAS BEEN MARCHING EAST ACROSS EAST TX. WHILE TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES ARE WEAK, ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PERSISTS WHERE SURFACE
WINDS REMAIN SLIGHTLY BACKED AHEAD OF THE FRONT (AS SHOWN IN THE 18Z
LCH/SHV SOUNDINGS). SURFACE WINDS/LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAVE SLOWLY VEERED
FARTHER SOUTHWEST (WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER) PER HGX VWP DATA,
SUGGESTING THAT INITIAL STORMS MIGHT STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES UNTIL CONVECTION SPREADS FARTHER NORTHEAST. THE
UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL
AFTER PASSAGE. THE MORE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE SABINE VALLEY
IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.
..GRAMS/SMITH.. 11/18/2024
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 29619439 30039508 30969517 32139442 33149415 33439380
33259302 32629270 31939266 30609282 29809328 29619439
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