898
ACUS11 KWNS 182130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182129
LAZ000-TXZ000-182300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX AND WESTERN LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 711...
VALID 182129Z - 182300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 711 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH
SEMI-DISCRETE WARM-SECTOR STORMS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT.
DISCUSSION...DEEP CONVECTION INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST HOUR WITH
MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MARCHING EAST IN DEEP EAST
TO SOUTHEAST TX. THE MOST FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENTAL OVERLAP THROUGH 01Z APPEARS TO BE CENTERED ON THE
SABINE VALLEY. HERE, SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY AMID INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR ARE APPROACHING THE LOW 80S FROM THE WEST, WITH DEW POINTS
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ONGOING SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TX WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAINTAIN SUSTAINED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN LA MIGHT
INTENSIFY AS WELL, BUT SEEMINGLY THE MORE PROBABLE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD EMANATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TX STORMS BEFORE THESE CELLS GET
UNDERCUT BY THE IMPINGING COLD FRONT.
..GRAMS.. 11/18/2024
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 30319470 30819439 31529379 31989331 32179307 32229279
32069245 31489274 30979301 30209390 30169449 30319470
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