545
ACUS11 KWNS 190550
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190549
MSZ000-LAZ000-190715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 190549Z - 190715Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...GUSTY WINDS, AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO, ARE POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
LA INTO WESTERN MS LATE THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY IS BECOMING LESS
FORCED WITH TIME AS THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING
NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN IA. SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LLJ PERSISTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST LA INTO MS, AND THIS APPEARS TO BE
AIDING FRONTAL CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED FROM
WESTERN MS INTO SOUTHWEST LA. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS SOME
ORGANIZATION TO THE SQUALL LINE AND A FEW BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES ARE
EVIDENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS, AND
PERHAPS SOME RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO, CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
CONVECTION AS IT PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THE SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN A BIT TOO ISOLATED
TO WARRANT A WATCH, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.
..DARROW/HART.. 11/19/2024
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 30199264 32449081 32119008 30229160 30199264
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