244
ACUS02 KWNS 191729
SWODY2
SPC AC 191727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINAS, AND ALONG
THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
..SYNOPSIS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL EVOLVE EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE, A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND GRADUALLY OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
WHILE A RELATED COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.
STRONG MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED/EMBEDDED LIGHTNING ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW/SHEAR
ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH, LIMITED HEATING/POOR LAPSE RATES AND DRY
AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY. OVER THE WESTERN FL
PENINSULA, RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHERE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK FRONTAL
WAVE LOW DURING THE MORNING. HERE, STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW (AND CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS) COULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG/ROTATING STORMS
APPROACHING THE COAST, THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT OVER LAND.
FARTHER WEST, SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN A BELT OF STRONG
MID/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW -- WITHIN THE BASE OF A MIDLEVEL LOW
OFF THE BC COAST -- WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS
(WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE) WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG/EMBEDDED CELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS AND POSSIBLY
WATERSPOUTS. HOWEVER, ANY SEVERE THREAT ONSHORE APPEARS TOO
CONDITIONAL FOR SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..WEINMAN.. 11/19/2024
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