290
ACUS02 KWNS 080655
SWODY2
SPC AC 080653
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CST SUN DEC 08 2024
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION
ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN A DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL
EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE ANOTHER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO.
A SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF ITS PARENT
SHORTWAVE. AS IT DOES, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MS AND THE LOWER OH VALLEYS, AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTH TX, BEFORE THEN MOVING EASTWARD AND ENDING THE
PERIOD OVER NORTHERN LA/WEST-CENTRAL MS.
THIS OVERALL EVOLUTION WILL ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST, WITH DEWPOINTS
LIKELY REACHING THE MID 60S BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A BROAD
AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THIS WARM SECTOR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT BUOYANCY WILL BE MINIMIZED BY POOR LAPSE
RATES AND RELATIVELY WARM PROFILES. INITIALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE THEN INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL LENGTHEN LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS,
WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
LOCALIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS VICINITY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
MINIMAL BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH SURFACE STABILITY
POTENTIALLY PERSISTING AS WELL. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW, PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR ANY
PROBABILITIES.
..MOSIER.. 12/08/2024
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