213
FNUS22 KWNS 081959
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST SUN DEC 08 2024
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT D2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE D2
PERIOD AND INTO D3 FOR A LONG DURATION AND WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER EVENT. SEE PREVIOUS TEXT FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..THORNTON.. 12/08/2024
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0144 AM CST SUN DEC 08 2024/
..SYNOPSIS
..SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY EMERGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST
BY LATE MONDAY AMID STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS.
A GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT SHIFTS
EAST/SOUTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE, AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 1035-1040 MB
SURFACE HIGH (AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY DECEMBER) IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH LATE MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE A STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WITH THE DAG-LAX
GRADIENT APPROACHING ELEVATED THRESHOLDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (-9 TO -11 MB) BY 12 UTC TUESDAY. AS SUCH,
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40-60 MPH
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TERRAIN. 07 UTC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS (10-20% RH) ALREADY IN PLACE WITHIN THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS, WHICH SHOULD SEE LIMITED RH RECOVERY PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF STRONGER WINDS. AS SUCH, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY/WIDESPREAD DURING THE 06-12 UTC PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
..SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM INTO SOUTHWESTERN TX AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWARD-PUSHING COLD FRONT. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH RH REDUCTIONS INTO
THE TEENS AND LOW 20S PROBABLE. WHILE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EMERGE, LATEST ERC ANALYSES CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT FUELS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A ROBUST FIRE THREAT AT
THIS TIME.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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