602
FNUS21 KWNS 091619
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CST MON DEC 09 2024
VALID 091700Z - 101200Z
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT D1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK. THOUGH
MORNING SURFACE AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE MARINE LAYER IS
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL AREAS/VALLEYS WITHIN THE CURRENT
ELEVATED AND CRITICAL RISK AREAS, THIS IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. CONDITIONS WILL
WORSEN THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PEAKING EARLY ON
TUESDAY.
..THORNTON.. 12/09/2024
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0129 AM CST MON DEC 09 2024/
..SYNOPSIS
..SOUTHERN CA COAST
HIGH-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CA COAST. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO AROUND
1036-1038 MB AS IT SHIFTS INTO NORTHEAST NV IN THE WAKE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. THIS UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH (90TH
PERCENTILE FOR MID-DECEMBER) WILL PROMOTE A STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY
MOIST AND QUIESCENT CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST
IN 06 UTC OBSERVATIONS, OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY
MID-AFTERNOON AND MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 45-60 MPH BY LATE TONIGHT AS
THE LAX-DAG PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS TO -6 TO -8 MB. WARM/DRY
LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR WAS SAMPLED ABOVE A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER IN THE
NKX AND VGB 00 UTC SOUNDINGS, SUGGESTING THAT RH VALUES WILL QUICKLY
FALL AS DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING INCREASES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
RH VALUES MAY FALL AS LOW AS 5-15% WITHIN THE HIGHER COASTAL
TERRAIN. AS SUCH, CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH POCKETS OF
EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS 12 UTC
TUESDAY.
..SOUTHWEST TEXAS
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST, TO PERHAPS CENTRAL, TX AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN PLAINS. WESTERLY FLOW ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES EMANATING OUT OF SOUTHERN NM/NORTHERN MEXICO WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WHILE NOT UNUSUALLY DRY FOR
MID-DECEMBER, AMPLE HEATING OF THIS AIR MASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE TEENS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH. WHILE ELEVATED CONDITIONS
ARE PROBABLE, FUELS LIKELY REMAIN UNRECEPTIVE BASED ON RECENT FUEL
GUIDANCE.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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