431
FNUS22 KWNS 091941
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST MON DEC 09 2024
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT D2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME
CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO ADDING AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. IN COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL PARTNERS, IT APPEARS THE THREAT HERE MAY REMAIN TOO ISOLATED
TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF AREAS AT THIS TIME.
EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE D2 PERIOD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS IN VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY
POOR, WITH LONG DURATION CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
..THORNTON.. 12/09/2024
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0146 AM CST MON DEC 09 2024/
..SYNOPSIS
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN A
ROBUST OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST FOR
MUCH OF TUESDAY AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY (SEE THE CURRENT D1 FIRE
OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC REGIME).
RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LAX-DAG GRADIENT
SHOULD PEAK SOMETIME DURING THE 12-17 UTC PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING AT
AROUND -9 TO -10 MB. A GRADIENT OF THIS MAGNITUDE TYPICALLY SUPPORTS
WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE COASTAL TERRAIN BETWEEN 50-70 MPH, THOUGH
LOCALIZED STRONGER GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE BASED ON SOME HIGH-RES
SOLUTIONS.
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THE OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH 12 HOURS OF PRECEDING DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SINGLE-DIGIT RH
VALUES (AND EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS), BUT SHOULD
ALSO PROMOTE RAPID CURING/DRYING OF 1 AND 10-HOUR FUELS.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY EMERGE
TUESDAY MORNING. RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND HIGH-RES DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN LOS ANGELES AND EASTERN VENTURA COUNTIES
WITHIN THE SAN GABRIEL AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS, THOUGH LOCALIZED
EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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