097
ACUS11 KWNS 101555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101554
GAZ000-ALZ000-101730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO FAR WESTERN
GEORGIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101554Z - 101730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING, INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW TORNADOES
AND/OR SEVERE GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR THE NEED OF A TORNADO WATCH. AN UPGRADE TO A
SLIGHT RISK IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL AL WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS. RECENTLY, A SUPERCELL STRUCTURE HAS DEVELOPED AND MAY HAVE
PRODUCED A TORNADO IN WESTERN AL. IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THESE STORMS
IS A 30+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ THAT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, SURFACE
HEATING MAY BOOST MLCAPE OVER 500 J/KG AMID UPPER 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND MODEST TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
SHOW A DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL AL INTO FAR WESTERN
GA. HERE, HODOGRAPHS WILL BE MOST ENLARGED AMID A POTENTIALLY
STRENGTHENING LLJ AND AFOREMENTIONED ADEQUATE BUOYANCY. ADDITIONAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW
TORNADOES AND SEVERE GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS.
QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING WHEN AN UPTICK IN SEVERE MAY BE REALIZED
(I.E. LATE MORNING VS. EARLY AFTERNOON), SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHEN A
TORNADO WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED FOR THE NEED OF A TORNADO WATCH AT SOME POINT TODAY.
FURTHERMORE, GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED UPTICK IN SEVERE, A SLIGHT RISK
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE UPCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
..SQUITIERI/HART.. 12/10/2024
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...
LAT...LON 32948400 32578424 32388529 32268635 32348705 32478757
32678789 33218741 33578665 33638560 33458447 33298423
32948400
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