743
ACUS02 KWNS 101723
SWODY2
SPC AC 101722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2024
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN NC
VICINITY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY OF THE EAST
COAST STATES. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS CENTERED ON EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
..SYNOPSIS
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASAL PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY
ADVANCE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY EARLY EVENING AND PIVOT
NORTH TO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD AN
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT TO THE BROAD TROUGH, WITH ASSOCIATED
INTENSIFICATION OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.
..EASTERN NC VICINITY
A PLUME OF MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY
PRECEDING WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR AND PERVASIVE
CLOUDINESS LIMITING INSOLATION. STILL, CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE RELATIVELY WARMEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS EASTERN NC. AMID WEAK LAPSE RATES, BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN
MEAGER TO AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG THE COAST. EVEN SO, FAVORABLE TIMING
OF THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE
SHOULD YIELD A STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE
COLD FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
SURFACE-BASED STORMS MIGHT SEPARATELY DEVELOP IN LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER COASTAL NC AND THE OUTER BANKS. AT LEAST A FEW
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE PLAUSIBLE, YIELDING A TORNADO AND WIND
THREAT. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THE TORNADO
THREAT MAY BE MORE SPORADIC WITH SHORTER-LIVED CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED
IN THE LINE UNTIL IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
..EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTS
DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE
INTO SOUTH GA AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE TIME OF DAY, THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF RICH EASTERN GULF MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT A LOCALIZED
TORNADO/WIND THREAT THROUGH MIDDAY. SOME POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA BUT
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VEERED WITH TIME AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH RAPIDLY ADVANCES AWAY FROM THIS REGION. THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE THREAT INTO GA/SC WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE DEGREE OF
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION, WHICH APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVE MIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST.
..NORTHEAST
PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SPORADIC
LIGHTNING FLASHES AMID SCANT ELEVATED BUOYANCY WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
WARM CONVEYOR. SOME CAM GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE LINE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTWARD-SURGING COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN
NEGLIGIBLE AND LIGHTNING PRODUCTION APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT WITH
INTENSIFYING WIND FIELDS, POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS
CAPABLE OF TREE DAMAGE.
..GRAMS.. 12/10/2024
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