500
ACUS11 KWNS 102345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102345
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-110145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2257
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 102345Z - 110145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WEAK, SHALLOW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT, BUT WATCH
ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO, SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE ALONG TWO
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXES AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION SHIELD
AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE DEEPER (ALBEIT STILL
SHALLOW, 20-25 KFT ECHO TOPS) CONVECTION HAS EXHIBITED SIGNS OF
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES. DESPITE VERY MODEST
BUOYANCY (AROUND 250-500 J/KG MLCAPE), 150-200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH
SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VPWS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL
STORM ORGANIZATION, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODEST MESOCYCLONES
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
THE LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL MODULATE THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT, AS EVIDENCED BY SPARSE LIGHTNING FLASHES ATTENDANT TO
THIS CONVECTION, WHICH IMPLIES GENERALLY WEAK/SHALLOW UPDRAFTS.
BECAUSE OF THIS, WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL ROTATING SHALLOW CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
GA IN TANDEM WITH AN ADEQUATELY WARM/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS.
..MOORE/GLEASON.. 12/10/2024
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 30948643 31218636 31608593 32308489 32788391 32808346
32768310 32588281 32358267 31888255 31378260 31068281
30928301 30868332 30658532 30668570 30728605 30808626
30948643
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