266
FNUS22 KWNS 110709
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 AM CST WED DEC 11 2024
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..NO CRITICAL AREAS
..SYNOPSIS
LOW-END FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS NOTED FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, BUT UNSUPPORTIVE FUEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD MODERATE THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. A COLD
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN CONUS
IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. ACROSS THE WEST, A MORE PROGRESSIVE, LESS-AMPLIFIED UPPER
REGIME WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING INTO
THE LOWER GREAT BASIN BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NV/UT WITH AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUPLED WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD PROMOTE A DRY RETURN FLOW
REGIME ACROSS TX AND MUCH OF OK THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF 15-20
MPH WINDS WITH RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE 20-30% RANGE APPEAR PROBABLE
BASED ON LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WHILE AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EMERGE, FUELS ACROSS THE REGION DO NOT
SUPPORT FIRE SPREAD AFTER RECENT PRECIPITATION AND/OR COOL
TEMPERATURES.
..SOUTHERN NV INTO AZ
THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL INDUCE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CA, NV, AND MUCH OF AZ. TRAJECTORIES
EMANATING OUT OF SOUTHERN CA/AZ (WHERE SINGLE-DIGIT DEWPOINT VALUES
ARE NOTED IN RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS) WILL ADVECT DRY AIR
NORTHWARD COINCIDENT WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE - ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO FAR SOUTHERN NV. BUT AS WITH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, LATEST FUEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ERCS ARE RELATIVELY
MODEST (BETWEEN THE 60-80TH PERCENTILE), WHICH SHOULD MODULATE THE
OVERALL FIRE THREAT AND PRECLUDES HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME (THOUGH
FUEL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED).
..MOORE.. 12/11/2024
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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