965
ACUS11 KWNS 111644
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111643
FLZ000-111815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2260
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 AM CST WED DEC 11 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111643Z - 111815Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE FL
PENINSULA, PRECEDED BY A LOOSELY ORGANIZED QLCS. THESE STORMS ARE
APPROACHING A GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS, WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXCEEDING 80 F AMID 70 F DEWPOINTS (SUPPORTING 1500
J/KG MLCAPE). WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SOME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALSO
PRECEDES THE LINE, DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT AWAY
FROM FL, SO SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER,
A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY EXIST FOR THE BUOYANCY/SHEAR
PARAMETER SPACE TO BRIEFLY COINCIDE TO SUPPORT A COUPLE OF DAMAGING
GUSTS OR A TORNADO WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. NONETHELESS, THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
..SQUITIERI/HART.. 12/11/2024
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 27538263 29258190 29798153 29758127 29348096 28538062
27948052 27618066 26808114 26468147 26328187 26638220
27538263
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