792
FNUS21 KWNS 120642
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CST THU DEC 12 2024
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..NO CRITICAL AREAS
..SYNOPSIS
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY EMERGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, RELATIVELY MOIST FUEL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE THREAT. EARLY-MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN CANADA WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE UPPER
WAVES WILL DRIVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THEY
MIGRATE EAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
..CENTRAL TX INTO OK
A MODEST, SOUTHERLY, DRY RETURN-FLOW REGIME IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK LEE CYCLONE IS
NOTED IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS EASTERN CO. OVER THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS, THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER WAVE APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LEE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT, SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL OK. THE RECENT DEEP FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS THE GULF WILL
LIMIT MOISTURE RECOVERY WITH RH MINIMUMS AROUND 20% EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE ELEVATED (TO PERHAPS LOCALLY CRITICAL) FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, RECENT FUEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ERCS ARE WELL
BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE. CONSEQUENTLY, FIRE CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED TO PRIMARILY FINER FUEL BEDS THAT MAY SEE SUFFICIENT DRYING
BY LATE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT FIRE SPREAD.
..ARIZONA
06 UTC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CA INTO SOUTHERN AZ WITH RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS. THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NV/UT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER WAVE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AFTERNOON RH
MINIMUMS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE ANTICIPATED, AND MAY COINCIDE WITH
15 MPH WINDS - ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
HOWEVER, AS WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ERC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FUELS
ARE NOT OVERLY RECEPTIVE AT THIS TIME, WHICH PRECLUDES HIGHLIGHTS.
..MOORE.. 12/12/2024
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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