290
FNUS22 KWNS 120709
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 AM CST THU DEC 12 2024
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
..SYNOPSIS
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER WAVE
TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RECENT WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN UPPER WAVE OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO REACH CENTRAL NM BY AROUND PEAK HEATING ON FRIDAY. IN
RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE WAVE, AN ANTECEDENT LEE CYCLONE
ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST CO WILL INTENSIFY WITH AN ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL
WIND RESPONSE. RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
SUSTAINED 20 MPH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NM INTO PARTS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE. THE TYPICALLY DRIER/WINDIER DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS HINT THAT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 MPH (GUSTING TO 35-40
MPH) ARE POSSIBLE, AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
TIMING OF PEAK HEATING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A 40-50 KNOT 700 MB JET.
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME SHOULD PROMOTE RH REDUCTIONS WELL INTO THE
LOW TEENS, AND POSSIBLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
AS SUCH, WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY. THE PRIMARY MODULATING FACTOR IS FUEL STATUS, WHICH
APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR FIRE SPREAD BASED ON RECENT ERC/FUEL
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, FINER 1-HOUR GRASSES MAY SEE SUFFICIENT DRYING TO
SUPPORT A FIRE CONCERN FOR SOME AREAS.
..MOORE.. 12/12/2024
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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