729
ACUS11 KWNS 121539
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121539
NYZ000-PAZ000-121845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 AM CST THU DEC 12 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN NY/EXTREME NORTHWEST PA DOWNSTREAM
OF LAKE ERIE
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 121539Z - 121845Z
SUMMARY...VERY HEAVY SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM,
WITH SOME WEAKENING POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BAND IS ONGOING THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NY AND EXTREME NORTHWEST PA,
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ERIE. RECENT REPORTS SUGGEST SNOW RATES IN EXCESS
OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST PART OF THE BAND, WITH ONE
REPORT OF 12 INCHES OVER A 2 HOUR SPAN IN ERIE COUNTY, NY. THESE
VERY HEAVY SNOW RATES WILL PERSIST IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. IN ADDITION, WIND GUSTS OF 30-45 KT HAVE
BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW IS
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST OF LAKE HURON AND APPROACHING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT
IN SOME DISRUPTION OF THE ONGOING SNOW BAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE 12Z CAMS) GENERALLY SUGGEST THE
BAND WILL TEND TO DRIFT SOUTH AND AT LEAST TEMPORARILY WEAKEN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.
..DEAN.. 12/12/2024
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...
LAT...LON 42227920 42117968 41998025 42058034 42178032 42278001
42427966 42867843 42907805 42687814 42367878 42227920
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