066  
FNUS21 KWNS 121704  
FWDDY1  
 
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1103 AM CST THU DEC 12 2024  
 
VALID 121700Z - 131200Z  
   
..NO CRITICAL AREAS  
 
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE D1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK. SEE PREVIOUS  
DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.  
 
..THORNTON.. 12/12/2024  
   
PREV DISCUSSION  
/ISSUED 1242 AM CST THU DEC 12 2024/  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY EMERGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, RELATIVELY MOIST FUEL  
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE THREAT. EARLY-MORNING  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE FROM THE  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN CANADA WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS  
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE UPPER  
WAVES WILL DRIVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THEY  
MIGRATE EAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
   
..CENTRAL TX INTO OK  
 
A MODEST, SOUTHERLY, DRY RETURN-FLOW REGIME IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED  
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER  
VALLEY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK LEE CYCLONE IS  
NOTED IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS EASTERN CO. OVER THE NEXT 12-24  
HOURS, THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER WAVE APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL  
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL  
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LEE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT, SOUTHERLY WINDS  
SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN AND  
CENTRAL OK. THE RECENT DEEP FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS THE GULF WILL  
LIMIT MOISTURE RECOVERY WITH RH MINIMUMS AROUND 20% EXPECTED THIS  
AFTERNOON. WHILE ELEVATED (TO PERHAPS LOCALLY CRITICAL) FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, RECENT FUEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ERCS ARE WELL  
BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE. CONSEQUENTLY, FIRE CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN  
LIMITED TO PRIMARILY FINER FUEL BEDS THAT MAY SEE SUFFICIENT DRYING  
BY LATE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT FIRE SPREAD.  
   
..ARIZONA  
 
06 UTC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN  
CA INTO SOUTHERN AZ WITH RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW  
TEENS. THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS  
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NV/UT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF  
THE UPPER WAVE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AFTERNOON RH  
MINIMUMS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE ANTICIPATED, AND MAY COINCIDE WITH  
15 MPH WINDS - ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.  
HOWEVER, AS WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ERC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FUELS  
ARE NOT OVERLY RECEPTIVE AT THIS TIME, WHICH PRECLUDES HIGHLIGHTS.  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
 
 
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