520
ACUS02 KWNS 121712
SWODY2
SPC AC 121711
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CST THU DEC 12 2024
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
..CENTRAL STATES
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THE ATTENDANT LEE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BE WEAK AS IT TRACKS FROM THE
RATON MESA VICINITY INTO EASTERN KS. MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE WESTERN GULF IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL WARM
CONVEYOR AHEAD OF THE MINOR CYCLONE. ADEQUATE BUOYANCY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH TIMING OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD YIELD A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING SATURDAY FROM THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE LOWER MO VALLEY. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET IN OK
TO EASTERN KS. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (AROUND 6 C/KM) WILL
CURTAIL ELEVATED BUOYANCY WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROGRESSIVELY
INCREASES WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT. STILL, FAVORABLE VEERING OF THE WIND
PROFILE WITH HEIGHT COULD YIELD TRANSIENT, WEAK MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX TO THE SOUTHERN OZARKS. SMALL HAIL
MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE DEEPEST UPDRAFTS, WITH LARGE HAIL PROBABILITIES
APPEARING TO BE SUB-5 PERCENT.
..NORTHERN CA
A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL APPROACH
THE WEST COAST. THE SOUTHERN ONE OF THESE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHERN CA COAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THE DOWNSTREAM LOW-LEVEL
WARM CONVEYOR WILL YIELD A SWATH OF RAIN AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING, ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH, MAY SUPPORT SCANT BUOYANCY BY 09-12Z.
OVERALL THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING APPEAR TO
BE AROUND 10 PERCENT NEAR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN CA COAST.
..GRAMS.. 12/12/2024
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