007
FNUS21 KWNS 131643
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2024
VALID 131700Z - 141200Z
DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WHERE PORTIONS OF THE MID-LEVEL JET
WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WINDS. THE ELEVATED AREA WAS EXPANDED INTO
THESE AREAS. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
..WENDT.. 12/13/2024
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0153 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2024/
..SYNOPSIS
A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY, REACHING CENTRAL NM BY PEAK HEATING. IN
RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE WAVE, A LEE CYCLONE ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST CO WILL DEEPEN, INTENSIFYING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH (GUSTING TO 35-40 MPH) ARE POSSIBLE,
GIVEN DEEP MIXING AND THE APPROACH OF A 45-55 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET.
THE DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES, DEEP MIXING AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
SUPPORT AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 12-15%. DESPITE SEVERAL HOURS OF
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS, THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF CRITICALLY DRY FUELS. WITH SEASONAL
ERC VALUES OF 60-80%, AREA FUELS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
SOME ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER RISK, THOUGH CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONCERNS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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