785
ACUS02 KWNS 141718
SWODY2
SPC AC 141717
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CST SAT DEC 14 2024
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED ON
SUNDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. AS A RESULT, ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW WILL ENVELOP THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A DEEPENING LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST, BECOMING POSITIONED FROM CENTRAL MO SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST TX BY 12Z MONDAY.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL
ALLOW UPPER 50S TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH
OF TX INTO EASTERN OK, LA, AR AND SOUTHERN MO. SHORTWAVE UPPER
RIDGING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD PRIOR TO 03Z WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR. HOWEVER, STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS (THOUGH STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED FURTHER NORTH). AS A RESULT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, MOSTLY
ELEVATED, THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z FROM EASTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI, ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY WEAK, PARTICULARLY FARTHER NORTH WHERE GREATER
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. THEREFORE, DESPITE FAVORABLE SHEAR ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR, STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE MESSY GIVEN THE LACK
OF STRONGER BUOYANCY, WEAK LAPSE RATES, AND THE TENDENCY FOR STORMS
TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH TIME. THE EXPECTATION OF
LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION AMID WEAK INSTABILITY PRECLUDES THE NEED
FOR A MARGINAL RISK AT THIS TIME.
..BENTLEY.. 12/14/2024
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