974
ACUS02 KWNS 150621
SWODY2
SPC AC 150619
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ON MONDAY.
..TX/OK/MO TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY MORNING WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED OVER THE MID/LOWER MO AND
MID-MS VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THOUGH, MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS EASTERN OK AND THE OZARKS INTO THE
ARKLATEX VICINITY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST MO INTO SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BECOMING POSITIONED FROM THE TN VALLEY TOWARD THE ARKLATEX
AND CENTRAL TX BY TUESDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, UPPER 50S TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL BE
MAINTAINED BY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM CENTRAL TX
TOWARD THE MO BOOTHEEL AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SCATTERED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING FROM EASTERN OK INTO SOUTHERN
MO AND PARTS OF AR. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST-ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS FAR NORTHEAST AS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TX AND THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
NORTH, AND OUT OF PHASE WITH, THE AREA OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES. A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM EASTERN OK TOWARD THE MO
BOOTHEEL. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL INHIBITION AND POOR LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. DEEP-LAYER
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, LIMITED SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY, AND WEAKENING SHEAR/ASCENT WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT,
SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.
..LEITMAN.. 12/15/2024
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