868
ACUS02 KWNS 151711
SWODY2
SPC AC 151710
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ON MONDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT ADVANCES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. A STRONG SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND EVENTUALLY
STALL FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO CENTRAL TENNESSEE AS THE PRIMARY FORCING
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. WHILE
THESE STORMS MAY POSE SOME SEVERE THREAT BEFORE 12Z, MINIMAL THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFTER 12Z AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION
AND INSTABILITY WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. HOWEVER, FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAK WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED. IN ADDITION,
IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP, WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR MUTED AND THUS LIMIT MUCH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
..BENTLEY.. 12/15/2024
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