832
FNUS22 KWNS 161918
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT
GUIDANCE. AVAILABLE HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITY OF SUSTAINED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
THE 12Z HRRR IS THE LONE PIECE OF GUIDANCE WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE RH
REDUCTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
NEAR-CRITICAL TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BRIEFLY DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE PORTIONS
OF THE SANTA CLARA RIVER VALLEY AND OXNARD PLAIN. TRENDS IN GUIDANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL NEED OF CRITICAL
HIGHLIGHTS.
..WENDT.. 12/16/2024
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0150 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024/
..SYNOPSIS
QUASI ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY AMPLIFY AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN US D2/TUES. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THE DAY PRIOR, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALLOW FOR MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA.
..SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AS HIGH PRESSURE INTENSIFIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTERIOR WEST, MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP D2/TUES INTO D3/WED. SANTA ANA WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL
OVERLAP WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 10-20% ACROSS PARTS OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AMID DRY FUELS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN CA, PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT D2/TUES INTO D3/WED. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND MINIMUM
RH VALUES IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. THE BEST
OVERLAP OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH IS EXPECTED LATE D2/TUES INTO
EARLY D3/WED MORNING. HOWEVER, IF WINDS TREND STRONGER AND EARLIER
AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED SOONER.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page