795
ACUS02 KWNS 181650
SWODY2
SPC AC 181648
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS ON
THURSDAY. WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH, ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, WHILE ANOTHER MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST, A LOW-AMPLITUDE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF WA/OR
DURING THE DAY.
A DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD GENERALLY
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. SOME
CONVECTION MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE PERIOD NEAR THE NC COAST, BUT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH FL.
..PARTS OF FLORIDA
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE, VERY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
F) WILL SUPPORT MODEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, THERE IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SIGNAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON THURSDAY, LIKELY RESULTING FROM
MODEST TO POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK TO NEGLIGIBLE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT. A CONDITIONAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FL, WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW.
..DEAN.. 12/18/2024
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