831
ACUS48 KWNS 221002
SWOD48
SPC AC 221000
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
..DISCUSSION
A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED AND MORE ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN-STREAM
PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK, ALONG WITH A GENERAL
NORTHWARD FLUCTUATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST.
AFTER A DAY OF LITTLE OR NO SEVERE-WEATHER POTENTIAL ON CHRISTMAS
WEDNESDAY/DAY 4, SEVERE RISKS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO DAYS 5-7
THURSDAY-SATURDAY. A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND MOVES TOWARD THE OZARKS/DEEP SOUTH.
THIS COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A LOW-END MULTI-DAY SEVERE RISK IN A
CORRIDOR FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX TO LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN PARTICULAR, THURSDAY/DAY 5 COULD ULTIMATELY
WARRANT SLIGHT RISK-CALIBER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS, ESPECIALLY IF THE MORE SOUTHERN AND MORE
SEVERE-FAVORABLE ECMWF MODEL RUNS BECOME MORE APPARENT.
..GUYER.. 12/22/2024
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