220
ACUS03 KWNS 270833
SWODY3
SPC AC 270833
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CST FRI DEC 27 2024
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON
SUNDAY.
..SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA
GLOBAL GUIDANCE VARIABILITY PERSISTS REGARDING SOME OF THE IMPORTANT
TIMING/SPATIAL DETAILS OF RELEVANT MASS-FIELD FEATURES AND
INSTABILITY, HOWEVER AN EASTWARD-SHIFTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY.
A STRONG CYCLONICALLY CURVED WIND FIELD WILL OVERSPREAD AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER/SOME MIDDLE 60S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
00Z-BASED GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO TREND A BIT STRONGER WITH DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION AND THE NORTHERN EXTENT THEREOF, ALTHOUGH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER EARLY IN
THE DAY REMAINS EVIDENT, COMPLICATING FORECAST DETAILS. REGARDLESS,
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS EARLY IN THE DAY MAY PERSIST, WITH
AT LEAST MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE DAY FROM GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
POSSIBLY VIRGINIA. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE SEEMS PROBABLE INCLUDING
LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS AND SOME SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO RISK.
..CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
IN CLOSER REGIONAL PROXIMITY TO THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND
SURFACE LOW TRACK, 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF MINIMAL BUOYANCY (A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE OR LESS) MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS IN PRESENCE OF STRONG
DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, HIGHLIGHTED BY 50-60 KT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL.
..GUYER.. 12/27/2024
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