322
ACUS03 KWNS 280831
SWODY3
SPC AC 280831
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
..NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR LOW ON MONDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL EXIT THE
NORTHEAST U.S. DURING THE DAY MONDAY, AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
BE LOCATED NEAR THE KS/MO BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE OZARKS AS THE LOW DEVELOPS, RICHER
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE (SURFACE DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE MID 50S)
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. FARTHER NORTH, DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S
WILL BE PREVALENT. AS STRONG DYNAMIC ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH THE MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITHIN AN AREA OF DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION. OVERALL COVERAGE,
HOWEVER, IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT AN AREAL DELINEATION (10 PERCENT
PROBABILITY) FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE CONUS, GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT
IN NEGLIGIBLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
..BUNTING.. 12/28/2024
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