121
ACUS03 KWNS 311925
SWODY3
SPC AC 311924
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2024
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
..NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THURSDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A STABLE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A BROAD REGION OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO
THE EAST. THAT RIDGE WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COASTAL
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, AN EMBEDDED WAVE IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST, WITH DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION FROM LA INTO SOUTHERN MS AND AL.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECONDARY
SURGE OF POLAR AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE MO/MS VALLEYS LATE,
PUSHING THE MOIST AIR MASS JUST OFF THE TX COAST EVEN FARTHER SOUTH.
WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS,
ACTIVITY OVER LAND IS UNLIKELY. MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY
DEVELOP INTO THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN LA, BUT THE
OVERALL PROBABILITY OF ROGUE FLASHES APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN 10%
WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ATOP THE SURFACE STABLE
LAYER.
..JEWELL.. 12/31/2024
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