355
ACUS03 KWNS 020756
SWODY3
SPC AC 020755
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 AM CST THU JAN 02 2025
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING FROM FAR
NORTHWEST TEXAS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
..SYNOPSIS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY, LIKELY REACHING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORTWAVE, WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTING THROUGHOUT ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AS WELL. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, WITH THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW THEN PROGRESSING
INTO CENTRAL OK BY EARLY SUNDAY.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PRECEDE THIS SHORTWAVE
AS WELL, WITH NOTABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ANTICIPATED
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OVER CENTRAL/EAST TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
EVEN WITH THIS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, OVERALL BUOYANCY WILL
BE MITIGATED BY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES, KEEPING MUCH ANY
CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SHALLOW. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM FAR NORTHWEST TX ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO
SOUTHEAST KS. HERE, COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ATOP MOISTENING
LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.
..MOSIER.. 01/02/2025
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