043
ACUS03 KWNS 021926
SWODY3
SPC AC 021925
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CST THU JAN 02 2025
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING FROM FAR
NORTHWEST TEXAS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
..SYNOPSIS
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY LIFTS/WEAKENS, A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST, BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY, MOVING INTO OK BY 12Z SUNDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BRING A PLUME OF
50S F DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD ACROSS TX AND TOWARD THE LOW OVER OK
SUNDAY MORNING. AT THAT TIME, A WARM FRONT WILL GENERALLY EXTEND
FROM THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MS.
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP, MOST LIKELY
FROM OK TOWARD THE ARKLATEX. ALTHOUGH MOISTENING, THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MAY REMAIN CAPPED OVER MOST AREAS, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE LOW AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
GIVEN THE SMALL WINDOW IN TIME AND SPACE FOR UNCAPPED SURFACE-BASED
PARCEL POTENTIAL, THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR SHOULD BE MOOT, AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
..JEWELL.. 01/02/2025
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