168
ACUS03 KWNS 030824
SWODY3
SPC AC 030823
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CST FRI JAN 03 2025
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SEVERE GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
..SABINE RIVER VALLEY/LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY,
AS AN ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX MOVES INTO THE OZARKS. AT THE SURFACE, A
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A COLD
FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH THE ARK-LA-TEX AND SABINE RIVER
VALLEY. AN AXIS OF MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S F FROM
APPROXIMATELY THE MISSISSIPPI-TENNESSEE STATE LINE SOUTHWARD. WEAK
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE MOIST AXIS DURING THE
DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT
IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF WEAK INSTABILITY, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
FOCUSED, AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT STARTING AROUND MIDDAY AND
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A LINEAR
MCS WILL DEVELOP. IN THAT CASE, SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE STRONGER PARTS OF THE LINE. A FEW
TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ROTATING CELL ELEMENTS WITHIN THE
LINE.
..BROYLES.. 01/03/2025
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