315
ACUS03 KWNS 040823
SWODY3
SPC AC 040822
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST SAT JAN 04 2025
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON MONDAY FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GEORGIA.
..SOUTHEAST
A LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, IS
FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S
F ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM MONDAY MORNING WITHIN THE MOIST AIRMASS, ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A WIND-DAMAGE THREAT, WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FASTER-MOVING SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS. HOWEVER, MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH
OF MOIST SECTOR, AND THAT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK ALONG THE FRONT. THESE FACTORS SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT LOCALIZED.
..BROYLES.. 01/04/2025
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