059
ACUS03 KWNS 041930
SWODY3
SPC AC 041929
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CST SAT JAN 04 2025
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA VICINITY...
..SUMMARY
LOCAL SEVERE RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA
INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GEORGIA.
..SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL LOW, EXPECTED TO RESIDE NEAR THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY MONDAY, WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD,
MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH LATTER STAGES OF THE
PERIOD (TUESDAY MORNING). MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, CLEARING THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS/GEORGIA BY SUNSET, AND THEN MOVING SOUTH/EAST OF
FLORIDA 12Z TUESDAY.
..PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS VICINITY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEAGER INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND WITH STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION, THESE FACTORS SUGGEST
LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. STILL, WITH A FAVORABLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION, A FEW STRONGER
STORMS/SEGMENTS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SUGGESTS LOW-PROBABILITY
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONGER GUSTS -- OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO.
AS SUCH, WILL MAINTAIN MRGL/5% RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA VICINITY.
..GOSS.. 01/04/2025
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