650
ACUS01 KWNS 081958
SWODY1
SPC AC 081956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST WED JAN 08 2025
VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT VERY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS.
..20Z UPDATE
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT D1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..THORNTON/SMTIH.. 01/08/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1023 AM CST WED JAN 08 2025/
..DISCUSSION
A DEEP MIDLEVEL CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
PRECEDING THIS FEATURE, COMBINED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION, WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TX
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. GRADUAL LOW/MIDLEVEL
MOISTENING AMID STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (SEE 12Z OBSERVED DRT
SOUNDING) WILL YIELD WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY ATOP A SUB-FREEZING
BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING FLASHES.
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