358
ACUS11 KWNS 101019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101019
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-101515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0419 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHEAST MS...NORTHERN AL/GA...SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 101019Z - 101515Z
SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN WINTER PRECIPITATION RATES IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS GRADUALLY
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING, IN
ADVANCE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. PRECIPITATION RATES ACROSS NORTHERN AL/GA HAVE THUS FAR
BEEN LIMITED BY VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS (AS NOTED IN THE 00Z
BMZ AND FFC SOUNDINGS), BUT SATURATION AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION WITH TIME THIS MORNING.
THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING, DUE TO THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF INITIAL EVAPORATIVE
COOLING, INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND
MAINTENANCE OF MODEST NEAR-SURFACE COLD/DRY ADVECTION FROM THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. SNOW MAY PERSIST AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE
FROM FAR NORTHERN AL INTO MIDDLE TN, WITH RATES POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING AN INCH PER HOUR AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AND THE
COLUMN SATURATES.
FROM NORTH-CENTRAL AL INTO NORTHERN GA, MIXED PRECIPITATION APPEARS
MORE LIKELY, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 700 MB ONCE
SATURATION OCCURS. A GENERAL TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW/SLEET RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLUMN
INITIALLY SATURATES, WHILE SOME ICE ACCRETION MAY EVENTUALLY OCCUR
WHERE SUBFREEZING NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN PERSIST AS
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO A LIQUID PHASE.
..DEAN.. 01/10/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 34618333 35118555 35288666 35458794 34838814 34708861
34478934 34168929 33808899 33358820 33128717 33028501
33038397 33238330 33528303 33828296 34618333
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