114
ACUS01 KWNS 101937
SWODY1
SPC AC 101936
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2025
VALID 102000Z - 111200Z
..NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
..20Z UPDATE
A WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG COASTAL
AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FL. THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH
SUGGESTS THAT THIS MAY BE MAINTAINED, PERHAPS EVENTUALLY MIGRATING
INLAND INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. HOWEVER, WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WELL OFFSHORE.
DESPITE WEAK LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO INDICATE THAT WARMING AND MOISTENING NEAR/JUST BELOW THE 700 MB
LEVEL MAY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CAPE DEVELOPING INLAND ACROSS THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT THIS
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN CAPPED BY RELATIVELY WARM/DRY LAYERS FARTHER
ALOFT, WHICH LIKELY WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE THE RISK FOR CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING.
OVERNIGHT, AS CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST,
WEAK BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE IN A
NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS/EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS VICINITY BY 08-12Z.
THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEVELOPING BAND OF SHOWERS; BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT RELATIVELY WARM LAYERS NEAR/ABOVE
500 MB WILL MINIMIZE THE RISK FOR CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LIGHTNING, AT LEAST UNTIL ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE GULF STREAM, WHERE
DEEPER/MORE SUBSTANTIVE DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE.
..KERR.. 01/10/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1024 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2025/
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
WITHIN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS, AN EMBEDDED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO,
WHILE ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES, ROBUST LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION REGIONALLY, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
FOCUSED ALONG/NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHERE WEAK MUCAPE MAY
EXIST. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN
OFFSHORE, LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL. STILL, GIVEN AMPLE LIFT AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT AND A
NEAR-COASTAL SURFACE LOW, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT GUSTY WINDS
AUGMENTED BY A LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE COULD OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM FAR SOUTHERN AL INTO PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE.
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