694
ACUS02 KWNS 160639
SWODY2
SPC AC 160637
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
..SYNOPSIS
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, AN INTENSE
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL OVERSPREAD THE GULF COAST STATES. A WEAK
SURFACE/TROUGH WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM OK/TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY,
WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
TO RETURN NORTHWARD FROM EAST TX TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOW 60S
F DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED NEAR THE COAST, WITH 50S
F DEWPOINTS REACHING ROUGHLY AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN AR INTO
CENTRAL MS/AL DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL REMAIN CAPPED, LIMITING
SURFACE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MLCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG).
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NEAR THE SABINE
RIVER INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. POOR
THERMODYNAMICS WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, STRONG FORCING AND AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD BE SUFFICIENT AMID WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
A BRIEFLY STRONG STORM OR TWO PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST
LA TO FAR SOUTHERN MS/AL, AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE VICINITY.
..LEITMAN.. 01/16/2025
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