156
ACUS02 KWNS 170550
SWODY2
SPC AC 170548
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
A SOUTHERN STREAM SPEED MAX WILL EXTEND FROM TX AND NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY, AND WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE
WITH A DEVELOPING FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH LATE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE DAY, AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS WILL BRING LOWER 60 F DEWPOINTS INLAND AS FAR NORTH AS
SOUTHERN GA. MEANWHILE, MID 60S F MAY BE PRESENT ALONG THE GULF
COAST. JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, WINDS AROUND 850 MB WILL ALREADY BE
STRONG AND VEERED TO NEARLY DUE WESTERLY, WHICH WILL TEND TO BRING
DRYING ALOFT.
THAT SAID, THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY TO MIDDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF AL, GA, AND NORTHERN FL. DESPITE THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL, WITH
LESS-THAN-OPTIMAL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL
AS THE STRONG FLOW COULD CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS.
AT THIS TIME, UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
PRECLUDES ANY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
OTHERWISE, A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM COAST TO
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING, PROVIDING COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS.
..JEWELL.. 01/17/2025
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