844
ACUS02 KWNS 171719
SWODY2
SPC AC 171717
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW.
..NORTHERN FLORIDA/FLORIDA PANHANDLE
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
SATURDAY WITH EVENTUAL PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND POLAR JET
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY
WEAK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP BETTER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE OFFSHORE. SATURDAY NIGHT, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO
STRENGTHEN WHICH MAY BRING MID 60S DEWPOINTS INLAND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET PHASES AND CONSOLIDATES, A SURFACE LOW WILL START TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH A SHARPENING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. IF ANY STORMS CAN REMAIN ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT, A STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR MOSTLY
ANAFRONTAL CONVECTION. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY
FORECAST, ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY NOT POSE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DESPITE THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
..BENTLEY.. 01/17/2025
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