865
ACUS11 KWNS 190708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190708
FLZ000-190915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH FLORIDA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 190708Z - 190915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE. AREAS NEAR THE COAST WITH UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE
THE GREATEST RISK. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN A WARM ADVECTION ZONE
OFFSHORE NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THESE
STORMS, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD. AS DEWPOINTS REACH THE
UPPER 60S F, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE AT LEAST NEAR
SURFACE BASED. STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE BUOYANCY, PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. BASED ON KTLH RADAR IMAGERY, THE CURRENT BAND OF STORMS HAS
SHOWN MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND SOME AREAS OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WOULD BE
POSSIBLE SHOULD AN ORGANIZED STORM MOVE ASHORE COINCIDENT WITH UPPER
60S F DEWPOINTS.
..WENDT/HART.. 01/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 29278465 29398459 29828347 29908294 29738249 29478236
29268236 28968328 28888424 28988470 29278465
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