969
ACUS02 KWNS 191719
SWODY2
SPC AC 191718
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
..NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE CONUS ON MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE FROM THE MIDDLE TX TO
SOUTHWEST LA GULF COAST WHERE WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR WITH STRENGTHENING
WARM-MOIST ADVECTION CENTERED ON 750-700 MB, DOWNSTREAM OF A
POSITIVE-TILT MID/UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. SOME CAM/NON-CAM 12Z
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, MOST AGGRESSIVELY FROM THE NAM, DEPICT SCANT
ELEVATED BUOYANCY DEVELOPING AMID A PLUME OF INITIALLY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGESTIVE OF A
PREDOMINANT PTYPE OF SLEET AT THE SURFACE, THESE POTENTIALLY
MIXED-PHASE ELEVATED PARCELS COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING FLASHES.
WHILE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES MAY BE NONZERO, THEY APPEAR TO BE
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.
..GRAMS.. 01/19/2025
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