003
ACUS48 KWNS 210904
SWOD48
SPC AC 210902
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
..DISCUSSION
AN AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE
MS VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY/D4, WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW, MAINTAINING DRY
OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DEPICTING A POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. A BROAD FETCH OF WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO MUCH
OF THE EAST, WITH THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY/D5 NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY/D6. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT COOL AIR AT THE SURFACE, SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION APPEAR LIKELY, REDUCING OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.
MODELS DIVERGE AROUND MONDAY/D7, WITH UNCERTAINLY REGARDING WHETHER
ANOTHER WAVE WILL DEVELOP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE-SCALE LOW. TO THE WEST, THE
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAY EVENTUALLY EJECT EAST, BUT TIMING
FOR THIS IS UNCERTAIN AS WELL WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY AT THIS TIME
FRAME. IN ANY CASE, SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO BE LOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
..JEWELL.. 01/21/2025
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