442
ACUS48 KWNS 230818
SWOD48
SPC AC 230817
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CST THU JAN 23 2025
VALID 261200Z - 311200Z
..DISCUSSION
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY 4-8 PERIOD, WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
AFFECTING THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. DETACHED
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE A LOWER-LATITUDE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CA ON SUNDAY/D4, AND PIVOT EAST INTO
AZ THROUGH MONDAY/D5. FOR THE FOLLOWING DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY/D8,
THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IS LOW FOR SUCH A SLOW-MOVING FEATURE CUT
OFF FROM THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH.
GIVEN THIS PATTERN, LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A FOCUS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL UNTIL PERHAPS VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD,
THURSDAY/D8 OR BEYOND. PRIOR TO THE SOUTHWEST-US UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS, A GENERAL EAST-WEST ORIENTED BOUNDARY WILL EXIST
ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES, WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY OVER
PARTS OF TEXAS.
..JEWELL.. 01/23/2025
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