927
ACUS48 KWNS 241001
SWOD48
SPC AC 240959
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
VALID 271200Z - 011200Z
..DISCUSSION
ON MONDAY/DAY 4, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY/DAY 5 AND WEDNESDAY/DAY 6, AS A MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM, MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN
THE EARLY TO MID WEEK, AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. A
MOIST AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY/DAY 7 AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME, MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY, LIFT AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN PARTS OF TEXAS AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA, FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL SUBSTANTIAL VARIANCE AMONG SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM,
AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING MAGNITUDE AND SPACING. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL. ON
FRIDAY/DAY 8, THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE LITTLE INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST.
..BROYLES.. 01/24/2025
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