896
ACUS48 KWNS 250956
SWOD48
SPC AC 250954
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
..DISCUSSION
ON TUESDAY/DAY 4, A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 5, AND THEN EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THURSDAY/DAY 6 INTO FRIDAY/DAY 7. THIS SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY/DAY 8. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO RETURN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
TEXAS, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS COULD REACH THE 60S F. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT DESTABILIZATION WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, STRONG LIFT AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS INSTABILITY, WITH THE MODELS CURRENTLY HAVING A WIDE
VARIANCE OF SOLUTIONS. THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO
QUESTIONABLE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES, WILL NOT ADD A
SEVERE THREAT AREA AT THIS TIME.
..BROYLES.. 01/25/2025
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