751
ACUS48 KWNS 311011
SWOD48
SPC AC 311009
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0409 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
..DISCUSSION
A GENERALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN, CHARACTERIZED BY FAST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE DETAILS INTO DAY 6 (WEDNESDAY), AFTER WHICH
DIFFERENCES BECOME INCREASINGLY APPARENT.
DAYS 4-5, THE GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST, THOUGH SOME
MINOR AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGHING OVER THE WEST IS EXPECTED DAY 5, AS
THE WESTERN CANADA LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD TOWARD/INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A RATHER SUBTLE, LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE DAY
5 (TUESDAY), AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
DAY 6. AN ASSOCIATED, CENTRAL PLAINS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE, WITH A COLD FRONT SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH FAVORABLY STRONG FLOW ALOFT, ANY
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, EXPECTATIONS FOR
WEAK INSTABILITY OVERALL, AND LIKELIHOOD THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS STABLE, SHOULD PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. IN ANY CASE, ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT AREAL INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
U.S. DAYS 6-7, BUT EVEN WEAKER INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
..GOSS.. 01/31/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page