472
ACUS48 KWNS 011001
SWOD48
SPC AC 010959
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST SAT FEB 01 2025
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
..DISCUSSION
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD, A PROMINENT BAROCLINIC ZONE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED IN A ROUGHLY
WEST-TO-EAST MANNER FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEAK/SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE U.S. WITHIN THE BACKGROUND/FAST WESTERLY FLOW REGIME
ARE EXPECTED TO MODULATE THE NORTH-SOUTH POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY,
BUT WITH ITS AVERAGE LOCATION REMAINING ROUGHLY UNCHANGED THROUGH
DAY 6 -- AFTER WHICH EVOLVING MODEL DIFFERENCES CAST MORE
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST.
AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION -- AND
PERHAPS A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL -- MAY EVOLVE PRIMARILY NORTH
OF THE FRONT, IN THE LATE DAY 4 TO EARLY DAY 6 TIME FRAME, FROM THE
CENTRAL U.S. EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/MID SOUTH REGION.
HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, RISK APPEARS TO LIMITED/LOW TO HIGHLIGHT WITH
A 15% PROBABILITY AREA.
..GOSS.. 02/01/2025
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