213
ACUS11 KWNS 061019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061019
KYZ000-061145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0067
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0419 AM CST THU FEB 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KENTUCKY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 061019Z - 061145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY
WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO.
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AND MID-60S
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE YIELDING AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR (~50 KNOTS) WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES FROM THE STRONGER CELLS
WHICH DEVELOP WITHIN THE LINE. IN ADDITION, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (300
M2/S2 0-1KM SRH PER HPX VWP) WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL WITH ANY STRONGER, ORGANIZED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. IN
ADDITION, A CONDITIONAL STRONG TORNADO THREAT DOES EXIST IF A
STRONG, LONGER LASTING, SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP. THEREFORE, THESE
STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A WATCH, BUT IF A
MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT WITH MULTIPLE MATURE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPS, A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
..BENTLEY/MOSIER.. 02/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...PAH...
LAT...LON 36938812 37538663 38238536 38538463 38368288 37928262
37258325 36858427 36648546 36708754 36938812
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