701
ACUS11 KWNS 061921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061921
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-062145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 PM CST THU FEB 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 061921Z - 062145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...WHILE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA, SOME
VERTICAL ASCENT IS APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI, LEADING TO MULTIPLE INSTANCES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (AROUND 50 KNOTS PER MESOANALYSIS) IS SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM MODES, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LONG, STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM SPLITS, AS EVIDENCED BY
THE INITIAL STORM EVOLUTION IN NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE. THE LIMITING
FACTOR TO A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT IS THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
(CURRENTLY AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE). LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TENNESSEE SLOWING
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
CLEARING/HEATING, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN-MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSING AN ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.
..JIRAK/HART.. 02/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 36188936 36698938 36948914 36828849 36748776 36698733
36658659 36808372 36158369 35438528 35248595 35148693
35248803 35318879 35508932 36188936
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