141
ACUS11 KWNS 070041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070041
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-070215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CST THU FEB 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TN INTO SOUTHEAST KY AND
FAR SOUTHWEST VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 4...
VALID 070041Z - 070215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 4 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SOME THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO, HAIL, AND DAMAGING WIND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL HAS GRADUALLY MATURED OVER THE LAST 1-2
HOURS TO THE NORTHEAST OF NASHVILLE, WHILE OTHER CELLS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KY. SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WAS NOTED
EARLIER FROM THE KOHX VWP, WITH SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS ONGOING
CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN TN AND FAR SOUTHEAST
KY/SOUTHWEST VA. WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EXPECTED TO BE
ONLY GRADUAL THROUGH THE EVENING, MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE IN ADVANCE OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION, WITH
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR CONTINUING TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AND POTENTIALLY ONE OR MORE SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS.
WITH ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN MLCINH EXPECTED, ONGOING SUPERCELLS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING, WITH SOME POTENTIAL TENDENCY
TOWARD MODEST UPSCALE GROWTH WITH TIME. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
RATHER VEERED, EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT
SOME TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY PERSISTENT RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS.
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELLS, WHILE DAMAGING WIND COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
STRONGER SUPERCELLS OR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS.
..DEAN.. 02/07/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...
LAT...LON 37188239 36728210 36528206 36028259 35718317 35648440
35698527 35888546 36518537 36898492 37048449 37268346
37278306 37188239
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